Working Papers


  • THE FACTOR STRUCTURE OF DISAGREEMENT pdf
    with: Fabian Winkler (FRB)

  • BIAS IN LOCAL PROJECTIONS pdf new version!
    with: Ben Johannsen (FRB)
    previously: FEDS WP 2020-010

  • FORWARD GUIDANCE WITH BAYESIAN LEARNING AND ESTIMATION pdf
    with: Chris Gust (FRB) and David Lopez-Salido (FRB)

Published


  • SHORT-TERM PLANNING, MONETARY POLICY, AND MACROECONOMIC PERSISTENCE, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming. pdf
    with: Chris Gust (FRB) and David Lopez-Salido (FRB)
    code: available on github
    previously: pdf

  • ONLINE ESTIMATION OF DSGE MODELS, The Econometrics Journal, accepted for publication. pdf
    with: Michael Cai (Northwestern), Marco Del Negro (FRB New York), Ethan Matlin (FRB New York), Reca Sarfati (FRB New York), and Frank Schorfheide (Penn)
    code: available on github
    previously: FEDS 2020-023

  • MONETARY POLICY, REAL ACTIVITY, AND CREDIT SPREADS: EVIDENCE FROM BAYESIAN PROXY SVARS, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(1): 157-192, 2019. pdf
    with: Dario Caldara (FRB)
    code: available on github
    previously: FEDS 2016-049 (May, 2016)

  • A SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO APPROACH TO INFERENCE IN MULTIPLE-EQUATION MARKOV-SWITCHING MODELS, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33(1), 126-140, 2018. pdf
    with: Mark Bognanni (FRB)
    code: available on github
    previously: FEDS 2015-116, Cleveland Fed WP 14-27

  • THE EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTEREST-RATE LOWER BOUND, American Economic Review, 107(7), 1971-2006, 2017. pdf
    with: Chris Gust, Matt Smith, and David Lopez-Salido
    code: available on github
    previously: FEDS WP 2012-083 (includes technical appendix)

  • BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF DSGE MODELS, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
    website
    with: Frank Schorfheide (Penn)
    previously: Particle MCMC and Sequential Monte Carlo Squared for DSGE Models (pdf), Gradient and Hessian-based MCMC for DSGE Models (pdf)

  • EFFECTIVE MONETARY POLICY STRATEGIES IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS, in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, University of Chicago Press, 2015. pdf
    with: Hess Chung (FRB) and Mike Kiley (FRB)
    previously: NBER Working Paper No. 20611

  • USING THE “CHANDRASEKHAR RECURSIONS” FOR LIKELIHOOD EVALUATION OF DSGE MODELS, Computational Economics, 45(4), 693-705, 2015. pdf
    code: fortran + matlab
    previously: FEDS WP 2015-35